Futurist Ray Kurzweil feels that technology is always a double-edged sword; a fire warms us, but it can also burn down the house. He thinks that the most powerful ones--biotech, nanotech, and AI--are potentially extinction-level risks. (Tesla's Elon Musk agrees with that AI could lead to disastrous results.) Nonetheless, Kurzweil feels technology has done more good than harm overall. Besides, it's probably impossible to put the genie back in the bottle anyways.
In terms of job loss to technology and AI, Kurzweil responds by saying that all jobs have been eliminated several times in human history. In 1900, 38% of people worked on farms and 25% in factories. By 2015, only 2% work on farms and 9% in factories. So there has always been widespread job loss, but new job creation has offset all of those losses. The only uncertainty is what many of these "future" jobs will look like.
Source: Fortune, October 1, 2017, Michal Lev-Ram
"Most of us must learn a great deal every day in order to keep ahead of what we forget."
"Man's mind, once stretched by new ideas, never regains its original dimensions."
According to Frey and Osborne, in 10 to 20 years, the landscape of jobs will change dramatically.
Jobs with 90% or more of being replaced by automation/computers in the near future include telemarketers (#1), library technicians, most clerks, loan officers, models, restaurant cooks, animal breeders, nuclear power reactor operators, manicurists, couriers/messengers, accountants, retail salespeople, tour guides, many technicians, among others.
The top 10 jobs least likely to be replaced by technology/computers are the following:
1. Recreational therapists
2. First-line supervisors of mechanics, installers, and repairers
3. Emergency management directors
4. Mental health and substance abuse social workers
6. Occupational therapists
7. Orthotists and prosthetists
8. Healthcare social workers
9. Oral and maxillofacial surgeons
10. First-line supervisors of fire fighting and prevention workers
Fortunately, for elementary school teachers, we're ranked #20 with less than a 1% chance of being replaced by a robot in the next 20 years.
An important thought we need to consider as teachers is this: Are we supporting our students to be able to reach their full potential and wholly participate in our future society, with the requisite skills and knowledge?
Source: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 114, January 2017, Pages 254-280; Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne
Encouraging Creativity in Kids
Vancouver Writers Festival
Studio 1398, Granville Island
This workshop, led by Marie-Louise Gay, was informative, inspiring and entertaining. The following will be a collection of ideas shared by Ms. Gay, distilled somewhat through my perspective into four broad categories.
Daniel H. Lee
This blog will be dedicated to sharing in three areas: happenings in my classroom and school; analysis and distillation of other educators' wealth of knowledge in various texts; insights from other disciplines and areas of expertise that relate and connect with educational practices.